ANZ chief economist Australia Ivan Colhoun once told me that if there was one data point he would back to the hilt it is ANZ’s job ad index.
It’s why the recent improvement in ads has signalled there is a turn in both the employment market and the outlook for RBA interest rates.
But possibly, there is no better graphic evidence than this chart from HSBC, which they released after today’s solid increase in employment.
HSBC says the average lag over the last 15 years has been between 1 and 11 months, but given that job ads look to have turned in January,this implies rates will be rising in 2014 well before current market pricing.
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